Using two simple charting indicators might give us a clue on how crypto markets are moving. Let’s take a look. The goal is to identify possible trends across the top 5 crypto assets by market cap. In later editions we can get into the thick of a discussion, but for now, using the AVP & AVWAP over a weekly timeframe, here are some observations.
AVWAP Weekly displays key areas of support. AVP displays a large gap between interest in buyers and sellers, setting up a 25% range in which Bitcoin could chop within. Risk-off traders/investors will likely stay clear of this range. Keeping in mind that BTC is a global asset can help with understanding how its recent underperformance has occurred. It front-ran Gold in 2024 and in 2025 had to undergo repricing with the
AVWAP Weekly displays strong resistance as Ethereum recovers from a year of aggressive buying from ETH Treasury companies are buying large amounts of ETH; this has invalidated a lot of metrics used to trade automatically, creating very choppy and irrational trading as market participants work to identify the true market value.
The gap between the bottom and top ends of the AVWAP is 50% on the weekly; in all honesty, it doesn’t look good for Solana. Why the underperformance? It is imo memecoin related; revenues and memecoin trading have dropped massively with active wallets on the decline. This could be a great buying opportunity if you believe that the memecoin cycle may come back. However, with XRPL delivering much faster and cheaper trades with almost no MEV activity trying to front-run your trades, Solana seems relatively pointless. One key area of focus is tokenised stocks; the chain of choice is Solana, and SOL would stand to benefit. However, currently they are banned in the U.S., and the current draft of the Clarity Act would see that the ban remains in place.
After Ripple won its case against the SEC, XRP shot up to over 3.50, creating a massive gap in AVP and AVWAP; price has settled with the daily 50 moving average sitting just above where it trades at the time of writing. If the trend continues, a buying opportunity could present itself at 1.808, with a 50% move between the mean and top end of the weekly AVWAP.
BNB has sat in the top 10 by market cap for many years. The AVWAP suggests there's still further movement to the downside on the horizon, and from an AVP perspective, there really has not been a tonne of purchasing since the break above 750. Trading long term on this name could look a lot different as the U.S. aims to lift its ban on the exchange. If you are not one for risk, this one might be worth avoiding, as it tends to move more in line with on-chain events; keeping your ear on the Binance Coin 2026 roadmap is key.
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